Working Group 3

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

Scientific Objective

The main ISEST objective is to "improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth".

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:

• Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
• Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
• Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

Scientific Questions

• Initiation

• Propagation and interaction

• Impact

Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data)

• Late July to early August 2010

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WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [1]

• February 2011

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run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [2] and [3] (1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011; (2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1; (3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.

• Early March 2012

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WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [4]

• July 2012

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WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [5]

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run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [6] and [7]

Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory)

• Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
• How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
• How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
• How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)

• Arrival time

• Geo-effectiveness

• Energetic particles

Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013

• WG3 - 1st Choice:
  • Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
  • Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

• WG3 - 2nd Choice:
  • Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
  • Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
  • Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

Future Plan

TBD