Working Group 3

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Simulation group led by Fang Shen (China) and Dusan Odstrcil (USA); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

A brief summary of the activity of WG3 at the workshop can be found here.

Scientific Objectives

The main ISEST objective is to "improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth".
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:

  • Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
  • Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
  • Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

Scientific and Modeling Questions

Initiation of CMEs

  • Hydrodynamic ejecta
  • Analytic flux-ropes
  • Blob-like structures
  • Data-driven model

Propagation and interaction of ICMEs

  • How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
  • How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
  • How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
  • Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
  • How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
  • How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
  • How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
  • How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?

Impact on Geospace

  • What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
  • How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
  • What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
  • What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
  • What are the conditions for long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs) events?

Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory)

  • Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
  • How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
  • How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
  • How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)

  • Arrival time (ejecta, shocks)
  • Geo-effectiveness (Bz for single and multi-events)
  • Energetic particles (IMF connectivity to shock front)

Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations

Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data)

  • Late July to early August 2010
2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [1]

  • February 2011
35hrs.jpg 51hrs.jpg Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [2] and [3]

(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.

  • Early March 2012
2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [4]

  • July 2012
2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [5]
013.jpg Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [6] and [7]

Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013

  • WG3 - 1st Choice:
    • Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
    • Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)
  • WG3 - 2nd Choice:
    • Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
    • Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
    • Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

Future Plan and Action Items

In the next 16 months (by the next ISEST workshop), we will:

  • Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)
  • Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
  • Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
  • standard outputs for observers (synthetic in situ plots and data, height-time plots and data of shock and leading edge of the driver)

Overview of the models used in ISEST

  • COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
  • ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
  • H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
  • SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope