Difference between revisions of "Working Group 2"
(→Scientific Questions) |
(→Scientific Questions) |
||
| Line 29: | Line 29: | ||
---- | ---- | ||
| − | ===What is the state of the art in the ICME-arrival forecasting?=== | + | ===''What is the state of the art in the ICME-arrival and ICME-geoeffectiveness forecasting?''=== |
| + | ==== - What are forecasting-performances of various empirical, analytical, and numerical models?==== | ||
==Future Plan== | ==Future Plan== | ||
Revision as of 04:15, 30 May 2013
Theory group led by Bojan Vrsnak (Croatia) and Yuming Wang (China)
Contents
- 1 Objectives
- 2 Scientific Questions
- 2.1 Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
- 2.1.1 - What is the role of the flare-associated reconnection?
- 2.1.2 - What is the role of emerging flux and poloidal-flux injection?
- 2.1.3 - How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
- 2.1.4 - How the inductive effects affect the CME eruption and ICME propagation?
- 2.1.5 - What is the role of the ICME/ambient-field reconnection?
- 2.2 How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
- 2.2.1 - Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions?
- 2.2.2 - How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
- 2.2.3 - How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
- 2.2.4 - How the ICME-driven shock evolves in the decreasing Alfven-velocity environment?
- 2.3 What is the state of the art in the ICME-arrival and ICME-geoeffectiveness forecasting?
- 2.1 Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
- 3 Future Plan
Objectives
- Initiation of CMEs and their take-off dynamics ("acceleration stage")
- Heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs and evolution of their structure
- Relationship between empirical, analytical, and numerical propagation models and comparison with observations; forecasting aspects
- CME/ICME-associated phenomena (flares, shocks, etc.)
