Difference between revisions of "Working Group 4"
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*To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth | *To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth | ||
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| + | *Integrate theory, simulations and observations in order to get a complete view of the chain of events from the Sun to the Earth | ||
==Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology== | ==Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology== | ||
Revision as of 05:09, 19 June 2013
Campaign Event Group led by Nariaki Nitta (USA), Luciano Rodriguez (Belgium); At-large leaders: David Webb (USA)
Contents
Objectives
- Provide textbook-style standard CME-ICME chain events from the Sun to the Earth based on the state-of-the-art observations and successful theoretical analysis and numerical simulation: happy stories
- Examine controversial Earth-Affecting CME/ICME pairs during the STEREO era (from 2007): surprising stories
- To analyse the complications that arise when linking CMEs to ICMEs
- To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth
- Integrate theory, simulations and observations in order to get a complete view of the chain of events from the Sun to the Earth
Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology
What are the common issues when linking ICMEs to CMEs?
- Multiple events
- Stealth CMEs
- CME deflection
- etc.
Calculating arrival times
- Projected vs 3D speeds
- Propagation models (DBM, ENLIL, etc.)
- Error margins
When/why will a full halo CME not arrive to the Earth?
When/why will a narrow CME (as seen from L1) arrive to the Earth?
What solar parameters can we use to provide an estimation of geoeffectivity?
Preliminary list of events
- 3 April 2010
- 1-4 August 2010
- 14-15 February 2011
- 12 July 2012
- 23 July 2012
- 28 September 2012
- 5-9 October 2012
- 6 February 2013
- 12-17 March 2013
- 11-14 April, 2013
- 31 May 2013
- WG1 events
Future Plan
TBD
