09/12/2014 15:26:00 UTC

An X1.6 flare and wave near Sun Center and a nearly symmetric halo CME on Sept. 10. The ICME at L1 on 12-13 Sept., following two IP shocks, mostly had strong northward field in the putative flux rope (several models produced). The southward fields, which drove the early storm activity, were in the sheaths trailing two IP shocks, the second one being the strongest. The ICME north field rapidly shut down the auroral and storm activity.

A STEREO SWx Group event. B. Jackson at UCSD runs a real time forecast site, and have included the Rosetta comet mission in the forecasts, currently using IPS data. A density response at Rosetta due to the Sept. 10 event was predicted for IPS and modeled using the ENLIL 3D-MHD code. We are looking for Rosetta solar wind data to confirm an ICME there.

Solar Data

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8GOES X-ray plot showing the X1.6 peak level flare.

Heliospheric Data

Link to GSFC SWRC Enlil prediction run on Sept. 10 at 11:58 pm.
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2014-09-10_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079/20140910_181800_ncmes1_sims18_LIHUE079_anim_tim-den.gif

In-Situ Data

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• ACE plasma and magnetic field plots are Sept. 9-15, 2014 showing two shocks at 11, 22:56 UT and 12, 15:26 UT. Southward field in the shock sheaths drives some storminess but Bz in the long duration ICME following the second shock is entirely northward, shutting down the storm activity.

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• Nitta's plot of ACE RTSW data in the style of K. Marubashi (http://www.lmsal.com/nitta/outgoing/nrt/plot_sw_mag_ace_rtsw_201409110900_201409142100.gif). The bottom panel suggests that the closest MC type is WNE (RH) in reference to Mulligan, Russell and Luhmann (1999) (http://www.lmsal.com/nitta/outgoing/nrt/mc_mulligan_20140912.png.) For this event people predicted either WSE or SEN with Bz<0, and LH. [Plot from Nariki Nitta on Sept. 15, 2014]