03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC
- This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.
At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]
- Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)
- The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo (see eps plot below). This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
- I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of
launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02
ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value).
The predicted speed by ElEvo of about 700 km/s is perfectly consistent with the ICME sheath speed in situ. In summary, this is a very clear Sun-Earth connection event. (Moestl)
Heliospheric Imager Data
- Wu, Chin-Chun, Kan Liou, Angelos Vourlidas, Simon Plunkett, Murray Dryer, S. T. Wu,
and Richard A. Mewald, Global Magnetohydrodynamic Simulation of the March 15, 2013 Coronal Mass Ejection Event - Interpretation of the 30-80 Mev Proton Flux, JGR, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JA021051, 2016.
- Wu, Chin-Chun, Kan Liou, S. T. Wu, Murray Dryer, and Simon Plunkett, Radial Dependence of Solar Energetic Particles Derived from the 15 March 2013 Solar Energetic Particle Event and Global MHD Simulation, in Proceedings of Solar Wind 14, held in Shandong University, 22-26 June 2015, AIP Conf. Proc. 1720, 070008, doi: 10.1063/1.4943845, 2016. http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/proceeding/aipcp/10.1063/1.4943845.