Working Group 3

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

Scientific Objective

The main ISEST objective is to "improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth".

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:

• Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
• Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
• Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

Simulation of ISEST Event Periods (with WG1)

• Late July to early August 2010
  • WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather

• February 2011

• Early March 2012
  • WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather

• July 2012
  • WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather

Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2)

• Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
• How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
• How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
• How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4)

• Arrival time
• Geo-effectiveness
• Energetic particles

Future Plan

TBD