Working Group 2

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Theory group led by Bojan Vrsnak (Croatia) and Yuming Wang (China)


Objectives

  • Initiation of CMEs and their take-off dynamics ("acceleration stage")
  • Heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs and evolution of their structure
  • Relationship between empirical, analytical, and numerical propagation models and comparison with observations; forecasting aspects
  • CME/ICME-associated phenomena (flares, shocks, etc.)

Scientific Questions


Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?

- What is the role of the flare-associated reconnection?

- What is the role of emerging flux and poloidal-flux injection?

- How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag

- How the inductive effects affect the CME eruption and ICME propagation?

- What is the role of the ICME/ambient-field reconnection?


How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?

- Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions?

- How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?

- How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?

- How the ICME-driven shock evolves in the decreasing Alfven-velocity environment?


What is the state of the art in the ICME-arrival and ICME-geoeffectiveness forecasting?

- What are forecasting-performances of various empirical, analytical, and numerical models?




Results of the Workshop and Future Plans