Difference between revisions of "Working Group 2"

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==Scientific Objectives==
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A brief summary of the activity of WG2 at the workshop can be found [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/presentations/WG2_summary.pdf here]. <br>
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*Identifying all Earth-Affecting ICMEs during the STEREO era (from 2007)
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=='''Objectives'''==
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*Tracking these events from the Sun to the Earth, and fully measuring/characterizing/quantifying the properties/evolution from the Sun to the Earth
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* Initiation of CMEs and their take-off dynamics ("acceleration stage")
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*Providing a comprehensive event database for statistical study, for creating empirical evolution/prediction model, for theoretical understanding, and for comparing/validating numerical models
 
  
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==Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology==
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* Heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs and evolution of their structure
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===What are the criteria of Earth-affecting CMEs?===
 
  
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===How to measure 3-D geometric and kinematic properties of CMEs in the corona, e.g., FOVs of COR1, COR2 and HI-1?===
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* Relationship between empirical, analytical, and numerical propagation models and comparison with observations; forecasting aspects
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*croissant modeling a la Thernisien et al. (software available in IDL SolarSoft: "rtsccguicloud")
 
  
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===How to measure 3-D geometric and kinematic properties of CMEs far from the Sun, e.g., FOVs of HI-2?===
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* CME/ICME-associated phenomena (flares, shocks, SEPs, etc.)
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*Geometrical modeling, approximating the CME front with geometrical shapes (points, circles). The IDL SolarSoft SATPLOT software can be used to extract and model time-elongation tracks of CMEs from STEREO/COR2/HI1/HI2 Jmaps.
 
  
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===How to reconstruct the 3-D structure of ICMEs from in-situ observations?===
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* Together with WG3, WG2 should provide a "theoretical-background service" to WG1 and WG2
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*flux rope modeling:
 
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#minimum variance analysis
 
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#Grad-Shafranov method (non-force-free)
 
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#force-free cylindrical flux ropes
 
  
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===What is the cause of "stealth" CMEs, i.e., CMEs without clear surface signature?===
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----
  
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===What is the cause of "problematic" ICMEs, i.e., ICMEs without clear CME counterparts near the Sun?===
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----
  
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===Can we find examples of front-side full halo CMEs in C2, but have no ICME signatures at 1 AU? Does this kind of event exist or not?===
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=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 +
===''Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?'' ===
 +
2.1.1 What is the role of the flare-associated reconnection?
  
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===What are event periods which need special attention for linking solar to in situ observations?===
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2.1.2 What is the role of emerging flux and poloidal-flux injection?
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*interacting events, very fast or very slow CMEs, or other special properties
 
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#late July to early August 2010
 
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#February 2011
 
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#early March 2012
 
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#July 2012
 
  
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==Future Plan==
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2.1.3 How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
 +
 
 +
2.1.4 How the inductive effects affect the CME eruption and ICME propagation?
 +
 
 +
2.1.5 What is the role of the ICME/ambient-field reconnection?
 +
 
 +
2.1.6 How to measure the real mass of ICMEs?
 +
 
 +
----
 +
 
 +
===''How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?''===
 +
2.2.1 Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions?
 +
 
 +
2.2.2 How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
 +
 
 +
2.2.3 How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
 +
 
 +
2.2.4 How the ICME-driven shock forms and evolves in the decreasing Alfven-velocity environment?
 +
 
 +
2.2.5 How ambient solar wind exchanges momentum, energy and magnetic flux with ICMEs?
 +
 
 +
2.2.6 What is the morphological shape of an ICME?
 +
 
 +
2.2.7 How does the morphological shape change and evolve from the Sun to the Earth?
 +
 
 +
----
 +
 
 +
===''What is the state of the art in the ICME-arrival and ICME-geoeffectiveness forecasting?''===
 +
2.3.1 What are forecasting-performances of various empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
 +
 
 +
2.3.2 How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
 +
 
 +
2.3.3 What are the key model-input parameters?
 +
 
 +
2.3.4 What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
 +
 
 +
2.3.5 What processes determine the ICME Forbush-decrease effectiveness?
 +
 
 +
----
 +
 
 +
===''The CME-associated phenomena''===
 +
 
 +
2.4.1 What are the mechanisms of initiation and what is the nature of CME-driven coronal waves and shocks?
 +
 
 +
2.4.2 What is the role of flares in the initiation and acceleration of CMEs?
 +
 
 +
2.4.3 What can we learn from coronal dimmings?
 +
 
 +
2.4.4 How the associated phenomena (flares, waves, dimmings) can help in the space-weather forecasting?
 +
 
 +
2.4.5 How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 +
 
 +
----
 +
 
 +
----
 +
 
 +
=='''Results of the Workshop and Future Plans/Collaborations'''==
 +
 
 +
The tasks in the coming year:
 +
 
 +
3.1 Addressing aerodynamics of ICMEs in IP space
 +
*Drag force/coefficient, external forces, internal forces, …
 +
*Participants:
 +
**Bojan Vrsnak, Jie Zhang, Christian Moestl, Yuming Wang, Fang Shen, Valbona Kunkel, ……
 +
*Models & Methods:
 +
**Drag model, flux rope model, Triangulation methods, spherical methods, ……
 +
 
 +
3.2 Addressing deflection of ICMEs’ propagation
 +
*Which conditions, How significant, Physical mechanisms, ……
 +
*Participants:
 +
**Manuela Temmer, Chenglong Shen, Noe Lugaz, ……
 +
*Models & Methods:
 +
**GCS model, Triangulation methods, spherical methods, ……
 +
 
 +
3.3 Addressing CME arrival
 +
*Compare models, input/output parameters, ……
 +
*Participants:
 +
**Nandita Srivastava, Luciano Rodriguez, Philippe Lamy, Yuming Wang, Dusan Odstrcil, Chin-Chun Wu, ……
 +
*Models & Methods:
 +
**CME auto-detection methods, cone models, Drag model, ENLIL model, HAF model, WSA model, ……

Latest revision as of 15:01, 24 June 2013

Theory group led by Bojan Vrsnak (Croatia) and Yuming Wang (China)


A brief summary of the activity of WG2 at the workshop can be found here.

Objectives

  • Initiation of CMEs and their take-off dynamics ("acceleration stage")
  • Heliospheric dynamics of ICMEs and evolution of their structure
  • Relationship between empirical, analytical, and numerical propagation models and comparison with observations; forecasting aspects
  • CME/ICME-associated phenomena (flares, shocks, SEPs, etc.)
  • Together with WG3, WG2 should provide a "theoretical-background service" to WG1 and WG2

Scientific Questions

Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?

2.1.1 What is the role of the flare-associated reconnection?

2.1.2 What is the role of emerging flux and poloidal-flux injection?

2.1.3 How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag

2.1.4 How the inductive effects affect the CME eruption and ICME propagation?

2.1.5 What is the role of the ICME/ambient-field reconnection?

2.1.6 How to measure the real mass of ICMEs?

How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?

2.2.1 Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions?

2.2.2 How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?

2.2.3 How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?

2.2.4 How the ICME-driven shock forms and evolves in the decreasing Alfven-velocity environment?

2.2.5 How ambient solar wind exchanges momentum, energy and magnetic flux with ICMEs?

2.2.6 What is the morphological shape of an ICME?

2.2.7 How does the morphological shape change and evolve from the Sun to the Earth?

What is the state of the art in the ICME-arrival and ICME-geoeffectiveness forecasting?

2.3.1 What are forecasting-performances of various empirical, analytical, and numerical models?

2.3.2 How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?

2.3.3 What are the key model-input parameters?

2.3.4 What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

2.3.5 What processes determine the ICME Forbush-decrease effectiveness?

The CME-associated phenomena

2.4.1 What are the mechanisms of initiation and what is the nature of CME-driven coronal waves and shocks?

2.4.2 What is the role of flares in the initiation and acceleration of CMEs?

2.4.3 What can we learn from coronal dimmings?

2.4.4 How the associated phenomena (flares, waves, dimmings) can help in the space-weather forecasting?

2.4.5 How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

Results of the Workshop and Future Plans/Collaborations

The tasks in the coming year:

3.1 Addressing aerodynamics of ICMEs in IP space

  • Drag force/coefficient, external forces, internal forces, …
  • Participants:
    • Bojan Vrsnak, Jie Zhang, Christian Moestl, Yuming Wang, Fang Shen, Valbona Kunkel, ……
  • Models & Methods:
    • Drag model, flux rope model, Triangulation methods, spherical methods, ……

3.2 Addressing deflection of ICMEs’ propagation

  • Which conditions, How significant, Physical mechanisms, ……
  • Participants:
    • Manuela Temmer, Chenglong Shen, Noe Lugaz, ……
  • Models & Methods:
    • GCS model, Triangulation methods, spherical methods, ……

3.3 Addressing CME arrival

  • Compare models, input/output parameters, ……
  • Participants:
    • Nandita Srivastava, Luciano Rodriguez, Philippe Lamy, Yuming Wang, Dusan Odstrcil, Chin-Chun Wu, ……
  • Models & Methods:
    • CME auto-detection methods, cone models, Drag model, ENLIL model, HAF model, WSA model, ……
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