Working Group 4
Campaign Event Group led by Nariaki Nitta (USA), Luciano Rodriguez (Belgium); At-large leaders: David Webb (USA)
Contents
- 1 Objectives
- 2 Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology
- 2.1 What are the common issues when linking ICMEs to CMEs?
- 2.2 Calculating arrival times
- 2.3 When/why will a full halo CME not arrive to the Earth?
- 2.4 When/why will a narrow CME (as seen from L1) arrive to the Earth?
- 2.5 What solar parameters can we use to provide an estimation of geoeffectivity?
- 2.6 More interesting topics:
- 3 Preliminary list of events
- 4 Selected campaign events
- 5 Future Plan
Objectives
- Provide textbook-style standard CME-ICME chain events from the Sun to the Earth based on the state-of-the-art observations and successful theoretical analysis and numerical simulation: happy stories
- Examine controversial Earth-Affecting CME/ICME pairs during the STEREO era (from 2007): surprising stories
- To analyse the complications that arise when linking CMEs to ICMEs
- To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth
- Integrate theory, simulations and observations in order to get a complete view of the chain of events from the Sun to the Earth
Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology
What are the common issues when linking ICMEs to CMEs?
- Multiple events
- Stealth CMEs
- CME deflection
- etc.
Calculating arrival times
- Projected vs 3D speeds
- Propagation models (DBM, ENLIL, etc.)
- Error margins
When/why will a full halo CME not arrive to the Earth?
When/why will a narrow CME (as seen from L1) arrive to the Earth?
What solar parameters can we use to provide an estimation of geoeffectivity?
More interesting topics:
- Forbush decreases (Mateja, Dragan, Darije)
- Sympathetic flares (Nariaki)
- SEPs (Bernd?)
- Prominence material in ICMEs, signatures in compositional data (Luciano)
- Determination of S/C path through the ICME, central or flank crossings
- Use of remote data to infer Bz: magnetograms, extrapolations, flux rope orientation
- False alarms: CMEs that did not arrive to the Earth when they were expected to, and viceversa.
Preliminary list of events
- 3 April 2010
- 1-4 August 2010
- 14-15 February 2011
- 12 July 2012
- 23 July 2012
- 28 September 2012
- 5-9 October 2012
- 6 February 2013
- 12-17 March 2013
- 11-14 April, 2013
- 31 May 2013
- 7 June 2013
- WG1 events
Selected campaign events
- Textbook example: [12 July 2012http://solar.gmu.edu/heliophysics/index.php?title=01/24/2012_14:36:00_UTC]
- Problematic event: 5 October 2012 (stealth CME, ICME trailed by a HSS)
- Backup problematic event: June 7 2013: the MC is too weak
Future Plan
- Collect results of simulations and models
- Compare and integrate simulations results with observations
- Start/continue the work related to the scientific questions
