Working Group 3

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

Scientific Objectives

The main ISEST objective is to "improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth".

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:

• Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
• Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
• Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

Scientific Questions

Initiation

• What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
• Data-driven model

Propagation and interaction

• How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
• How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
• How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
• Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
• How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
• How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
• How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
• How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?

Impact

• What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
• How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
• What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
• What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

Results of the Workshop and Future Plans

Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data)

• Late July to early August 2010

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WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [1]

• February 2011

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Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [2] and [3] (1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011; (2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1; (3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.

• Early March 2012

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WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [4]

• July 2012

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WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [5]

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Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [6] and [7]

Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory)

• Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
• How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
• How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
• How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)

• Arrival time

• Geo-effectiveness

• Energetic particles

Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013

• WG3 - 1st Choice:
  • Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
  • Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

• WG3 - 2nd Choice:
  • Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
  • Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
  • Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

= Future Plan

TBD