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| − | This page is a summary of the work by Working Group 5, dedicated to predicting the southern magnetic field component of CMEs.
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| − | =='''WG5 Statement'''==
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| − | The presence of southward magnetic fields in ICMEs are
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| − | the most important factor in producing geomagnetic storms.
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| − | The challenge is that direct observations of magnetic fields near the Sun
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| − | are extremely limited: currently possible only in the
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| − | photosphere/chromosphere
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| − | at the solar end and by in-situ observations at 1 AU.
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| − | WG5 aims to understand and reconstruct the possible flux
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| − | rope magnetic structure
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| − | of CMEs/ICMEs from observations and models. It also aims to
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| − | predict the intensity and the duration of of the Bs in ICMEs
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| − | upon arriving at the Earth.
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| − | =='''Methodology'''==
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| − | * Deduce near-Sun |B| of CMEs
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| − | * Deduce near-Sun orientation of CMEs
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| − | * Propagate near-Sun |B| to 1 AU
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| − | * Propagate near-Sun orientation to 1 AU
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| − | * Compare predictions with observations at 1 AU
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| − | ===Preliminary Work Plan===
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| − | * Find suitable datasets for near-Sun |B| field calculations applicable to as many of the available methods as possible --- <b> start with events already analysed </b> by the various team members ----coordinate w/ the data and campaign WGs (yrs 1-2)
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| − | * Assess the pros & cons of the various methods of near-Sun |B| determination -- coordinate w/ the theory and modeling WGs (yrs 1-2)
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| − | * Apply methods (existing or improved) to a sample of CMEs and determine near-Sun |B| -> paper and list of events/data (yrs 2-3)
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| − | * Extrapolate near-Sun |B| & orientation to 1 AU and compare w/ in-situ measurements and MC fittings ->paper and tables of pertinent data (yrs 3-4)
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