Working Group 4

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Campaign Event Group led by Nariaki Nitta (USA), Luciano Rodriguez (Belgium); At-large leaders: David Webb (USA)

Objectives

  • Provide textbook-style standard CME-ICME chain events from the Sun to the Earth based on the state-of-the-art observations and successful theoretical analysis and numerical simulation: happy stories
  • Examine controversial Earth-Affecting CME/ICME pairs during the STEREO era (from 2007): surprising stories
  • To analyse the complications that arise when linking CMEs to ICMEs
  • To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth
  • Integrate theory, simulations and observations in order to get a complete view of the chain of events from the Sun to the Earth

Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology

What are the common issues when linking ICMEs to CMEs?

  • Multiple events
  • Stealth CMEs
  • CME deflection
  • etc.

Calculating arrival times

  • Projected vs 3D speeds
  • Propagation models (DBM, ENLIL, etc.)
  • Error margins

When/why will a full halo CME not arrive to the Earth?

When/why will a narrow CME (as seen from L1) arrive to the Earth?

What solar parameters can we use to provide an estimation of geoeffectivity?

More interesting topics:

  • Forbush decreases (Mateja, Dragan, Darije)
  • Sympathetic flares (Nariaki)
  • SEPs (Bernd?)
  • Prominence material in ICMEs, signatures in compositional data (Luciano)
  • Determination of S/C path through the ICME, central or flank crossings
  • Use of remote data to infer Bz: magnetograms, extrapolations, flux rope orientation
  • False alarms: CMEs that did not arrive to the Earth when they were expected to, and viceversa.

Preliminary list of events

  • 3 April 2010
  • 1-4 August 2010
  • 14-15 February 2011
  • 12 July 2012
  • 23 July 2012
  • 28 September 2012
  • 5-9 October 2012
  • 6 February 2013
  • 12-17 March 2013
  • 11-14 April, 2013
  • 31 May 2013
  • 7 June 2013
  • WG1 events


Selected campaign events

  • Textbook example: 12 July 2012
  • Problematic event: 5 October 2012 (stealth CME, ICME trailed by a HSS)
  • Backup problematic event: June 7 2013: the MC is too weak


Future Plan

  • Collect results of simulations and models
  • Compare and integrate simulations results with observations
  • Start/continue the work related to the scientific questions