Difference between revisions of "Working Group 4"

From heliophysics
Jump to: navigation, search
(Objectives)
(Objectives)
Line 11: Line 11:
  
 
*To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth
 
*To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth
 +
 +
*Integrate theory, simulations and observations in order to get a complete view of the chain of events from the Sun to the Earth
  
 
==Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology==
 
==Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology==

Revision as of 06:09, 19 June 2013

Campaign Event Group led by Nariaki Nitta (USA), Luciano Rodriguez (Belgium); At-large leaders: David Webb (USA)

Objectives

  • Provide textbook-style standard CME-ICME chain events from the Sun to the Earth based on the state-of-the-art observations and successful theoretical analysis and numerical simulation: happy stories
  • Examine controversial Earth-Affecting CME/ICME pairs during the STEREO era (from 2007): surprising stories
  • To analyse the complications that arise when linking CMEs to ICMEs
  • To obtain new insights that could be applied when forecasting ICME arrivals at the Earth
  • Integrate theory, simulations and observations in order to get a complete view of the chain of events from the Sun to the Earth

Scientific Questions, Technique Approach/Methodology

What are the common issues when linking ICMEs to CMEs?

  • Multiple events
  • Stealth CMEs
  • CME deflection
  • etc.

Calculating arrival times

  • Projected vs 3D speeds
  • Propagation models (DBM, ENLIL, etc.)
  • Error margins

When/why will a full halo CME not arrive to the Earth?

When/why will a narrow CME (as seen from L1) arrive to the Earth?

What solar parameters can we use to provide an estimation of geoeffectivity?

Preliminary list of events

  • 3 April 2010
  • 1-4 August 2010
  • 14-15 February 2011
  • 12 July 2012
  • 23 July 2012
  • 28 September 2012
  • 5-9 October 2012
  • 6 February 2013
  • 12-17 March 2013
  • 11-14 April, 2013
  • 31 May 2013
  • WG1 events

Future Plan

TBD