heliophysics - User contributions [en]

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:09:53Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo (see eps plot below). This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value).

The predicted speed by ElEvo of about 700 km/s is perfectly consistent with the ICME sheath speed in situ.
In summary, this is a very clear Sun-Earth connection event. (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:07:27Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo (see eps plot below). This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:07:16Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo (see eps plot below). This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

-- launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
-- speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
-- direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:07:02Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo (see eps plot below). This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

- aunch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
- speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
- direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:06:24Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:06:16Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]
[[File:elevomarch13.png|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:05:36Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:05:28Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.eps.png|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

File:Elevo 2013 march.eps

2015-10-19T13:04:50Z

Moestlc:

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:03:48Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevomarch13.png|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:03:40Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevomarch13.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:03:09Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevomarch13.png|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

File:Elevomarch13.png

2015-10-19T13:02:22Z

Moestlc:

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:01:45Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevo_2013_march.jpg|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T13:01:30Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary propagation */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==
[[File:elevomarch13.jpg|400px]]

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

File:Elevo 2013 march.jpg

2015-10-19T12:59:30Z

Moestlc: Moestlc uploaded a new version of "File:Elevo 2013 march.jpg"

File:Elevo 2013 march.jpg

2015-10-19T12:58:45Z

Moestlc: Moestlc uploaded a new version of "File:Elevo 2013 march.jpg"

File:Elevo 2013 march.jpg

2015-10-19T12:58:12Z

Moestlc:

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:54:46Z

Moestlc: /* Image Data */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Interplanetary propagation==

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:53:54Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*I used the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:53:32Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*Using the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of
launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT //
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02
ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:53:12Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line. (Moestl)
*Using the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of
launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02
ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:52:57Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line.
Using the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of
launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02
ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:52:41Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

*The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line.

Using the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:52:24Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

=Comment Section=
*This is a varSITI campaign event for ISEST and SPeCIMEN.

At the Sun the event had an M1.1 flare, erupting filament, type IV radio burst, fast halo CME. At Earth a shock, possible MC, SEP, and strong storm, Dst=-132. A TB case. Modeled by C-C Wu. [Added by D. Webb]

*Depressed density and temperature as well as decreasing velocity are indicative of a flux rope, but with the weak magnetic field it may just be the flank passing through the Earth. Clear shock signatures in temperature and velocity and total B, more of a gradual increase in density. (Hess)

"The shock arrival time at Wind is 2013-03-17 05:31 UT. The CME propagation from Sun to Earth can be very well modeled with ElEvo. This CME should have impacted Messenger at Mercury (at least with the shock) on early March 16; MESSENGER/Mercury are roughly 30 degrees west of the Sun-Earth line.

Using the ElEvo model for the interplanetary shock propagation (Moestl et al. 2015 Nat. Comm.) with initial CME parameters of

launch time: March 15 2013 1100 UT
speed: 1063 km/s at distance 25 Rs
direction: W5 => this is the average of interplanetary directions by HI SSEF modeling from STEREO A and B, taken from the STEREO HI CME catalogue
http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/catalogues/wp3_cat.html CME ids: HCME_B__20130315_01 HCME_A__20130315_02

ElEvo yields an arrival time at the Earth consistent with the observed one, with a drag parameter that is 0.11 (which is slightly lower than average) and a background solar wind of 400 km/s (=normal value). " (Moestl)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2013031600.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2013031600.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2013031600.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock.

==Heliospheric Imager Data==
[[File:20120315stereoa.gif]]
[[File:20120315stereob.gif]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia171.mp4 AIA 171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315aia193.mp4 AIA 193] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/20120315hmi.mp4 HMI] 

=References=

03/17/2013 05:30:00 UTC

2015-10-19T12:18:37Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-17T08:57:18Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

=Comment Section=
*varSITI campaign event
*Largest geomagnetic storm at Earth for solar cycle 24, this event registered a Dst peak of -228 nT.
*Based on both the in-situ signature of the event and the ENLIL solar wind prediction for this date, I think it is likely a CIR played a role in making it so strong. There is a strong coronal hole at the South Pole and the ENLIL simulation ([[http://helioweather.net/archive/2015/03/cmes201503_vel3r2e1b.mp4]]) shows a fairly fast stream that interacts with the CME, and this fast speed stream (~600 km/s) shows up in ACE data as well. Based on the C2 and C3 images for the day, it appears there is a slow CME launching around noon on the 14th with a small but visible filament. On the morning of the 15th a partial halo CME, associated with a long duration flare that fell just short of M class (C9.1) and from the same active region (AR 12297), launched propagating to the East of the Sun Earth line. I think it is likely that an interaction between the CME+shock of this event and the previous blob CME, as well as the added energy from the CIR and fast speed stream behind the CME caused the severity of the geomagnetic activity at the Earth (Hess)
*This super storm is produced through a combination of effects: (1) strong magnetic field in the sheath region (> 25 nT at peak)) and ejecta (>30 nT at peak, (2) Bs field encompasses the entire duration of the ejecta, due to that the axis of the flux rope is highly inclined toward the north-south direction, (3) the interaction with CIR, and almost contained in a CIR region. Such containment by CIR prevents the expansion of the flux rope, thus makes the flux rope small in size by strong in magnetic field (Jie Zhang).
*This may be a kind of CME-CME interaction event. We have a large filament, embedded in a magnetic flux rope, close to the AR which released this highly geoeffective CME. Part of the filament (or flux rope) erupted - or at least, left the low corona - already on March 14 (around 12UT). The final and major eruption on March 15 seems to interact with the first disturbance. The interacting sectors might propagate close to Earth direction. This might be a reason for the complex in-situ signatures (two flux ropes?) as well as the increased geoeffectiveness (Manuela Temmer).
*With the ElEvo model results for the March 15 04:00 UT CME shock propagation from Sun to Earth, I need a quite low value of gamma to get the Wind speed and arrival time right, which reflects that this CME did not seem to experience much drag during interplanetary propagation. If the CME apex is really about 40° away from the Earth (as indicated by the source region position), I think its very surprising that Earth is hit by the flux rope. I think this is only possible if the flux rope had a very low inclination to the ecliptic, or as said before that there was some interaction with the CME on March 14. Maybe the drag parameter is low because the CIR was pushing from behind, adding an additional force? (Christian Moestl)
*For Christian's high inclination problem, I think that an explanation is the deflection. My theory proposed that fast CMEs deflect toward east and slow CMEs deflect toward west (Wang et al., JGR, 119, 5117, 2014). Also there are in situ signatures of such possible deflection. From fitting results of my velocity-modified flux rope model, we find there is significant propagation velocity of the CME at 1 AU which is perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line (in +y direction in GSE coordinates). (Yuming Wang)

=USTC mini workshop discussion[2015/06/12]=

==Initiation near the Sun==

Flare: raise/decay time 58 min / 6 hours

CME: Initial speed ~500 - 1000 km/s

Complex eruption. At least three different filaments involved.

Two smaller ones on the left erupted. The longer one on the right was active but not erupted.

First jet like filament eruption at the time of ~00:38UT produced a short duration C2 flare. Second filament eruption at the time of ~01:15UT (flare onset) produced the long duration C9 flare and the CME.

The source region of the flare/filament was not located near the main neutral line of the strong main bipolar region. It was located on the south west of the main active region.

Strong magnetic field cancellation observed near the source region of the second filament eruption.

There was an extended coronal hole in the south west of the active region which might be the source of the fast stream following the ICME.

==Propagation in the interplanetary space==

There was consensus that CME1 on the March 14 and CME2 on the March 15 were not interacted. There was no evidence of interaction in LASCO C2 and C3 images.

From Phil Hess’s measurements based on the spherical bubble model, the CME speed at 4 Rs near 02:00UT is 1100 km/s. It decelerated to 750 km/s at the 20 Rs at 05:30 UT. The propagation direction of this CME is S11W39.

From the GCS model fitting results done by USTC STEP group, the propagation direction is S11W46.

The speed at 02:00UT was 1000 km/s. When it propagated at 20 Rs near the time of 06:06UT, its speed is 720km/s.

From the USTC’s Ice Cream Cone model’s fitting results, this CME propagated with the speed of 807 km/s in the LASCO field of view. The propagation direction is S10W35. The angular width is 115 degree.

Observed transit time: 51 hours (flare onset to shock arrival) || 57 hours (flare onset to ICME arrival)

Model calculations:

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=500 km/s

Results SPM2 [Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, http://www.spaceweather.ac.cn/groupmodel.php?group=sigma ] 53 hours for shock

DMB [Bojan Vrsnak, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBM/dbm.php]: 57 hours for ICME

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=400 km/s

Results: SPM2[Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, ] 60 hours for shock

DMB[Bojan Vrsnak]: 63 hours for ICME

==In situ properties and geoeffectiveness==

Questions:

What is the connection between the solar and interplanetary observations?

Why this high inclined and not earth directed CME arrived at the Earth?

Why is this a super geomagnetic storm considering the small flare of C9 class and intermediate CME speed of less than 1000 km/s?

Why is the magnetic field irregular? i. e. not a typical magnetic cloud?

==Geospace response==

=Image Data=

==In-situ data==
[[File:20150315_magplasma.png]]
[[File:20150315_mag.png]] 
*These are in-situ plots based on the ACE daily text files, I will update them when the cdf data becomes available. In these plots the shock is very clear, but beyond that any ejecta signature is weak and there does not appear to be any strong Magnetic cloud. But there are two clear and distinct periods of strong -Bz. (Hess)

==LASCO/Kanzelhöhe==
Image collection of white light and chromospheric data, showing two disturbances and the partly erupted filament which is related to the CME producing AR:
[link http://www.uni-graz.at/~temmerma/download/varsiti/20150315.pdf]

==GOES Plot==
[[File:20150315_goes.png]]

==SOHO/LASO measurement==
[[File:Hess_heights.png|700px]]
*Height-Time plot based on SOHO/LASCO measurement
[[File:Hess_velocity.png|700px]]
*Velocity-Time plot from SOHO/LASCO H-T measurement
*Height-Time measurement data from SOHO/LASCO: [[Hess_measurement.docx]]

measurements from CORIMP (max speed given as 918 km/s, central PA as 262)
http://alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu/CORIMP/realtime/soho/lasco/detections/2015/03/15/cme_kins/plot_kins_quartiles_savgol_20150315_000006.jpg

== Interplanetary Propagation ==
Christian Möstl and Tanja Rollett:
ElEvo results (parameters already tweaked so it matches Wind arrivals):
shock arrival at Wind: March 17 03:50 UT
arrival speed 665 km/s

Wind observations (taken from the Wu et al. draft):
shock arrival March 17 03:59 UT
arrival speed of the sheath is 500- 600 km/s, about 100 km/s less than the ElEvo arrival speed.

This model/plot can be adjusted very easily if you think the CME initial speed, direction and launch time should be different.

initial CME parameters:
inital speed at 15 Rs: 1120 km/s, at time 2015 March 15 04:00 UT, direction to Earth west 39°
the speed was taken from Kevin Schenk real time email, consistent with Gopalswamy et al. proceeding; same for direction. Thus I assume that the source region position is similar to the CME direction. Because the flare happens inside the AR and there are no large coronal holes nearby, it should be relatively safe to assume this direction as the CME propagation direction. The asymmetric halo with more material to the west of the Sun also supports this. Other Parameters: background wind: 400 km/s, gamma: 0.1, ellipse aspect ratio 1.6, full width: 100° in heliospheric longitude.

We have also experimented with the initial conditions given by the above LASCO measurements for the CME shock, using launch on March 15 08:06 UT, at 28.7 Rs, speed of 700 km/s
but the arrival times we get are about 0.5-1 day to late compared to the observed one at Wind, even with very extreme choices for gamma and the ellipse aspect ratio or a direct propagation towards Earth the observed arrival time is not reproduced. Thus, it seems that the (projected) initial speed is too slow for this event - ElEvo with 1120 km/s initial speed as indicated by the real time measurements is able to reproduce the observed arrival time and speed as shown above.

[[File:elevo_15_mar_2015_storm_small2.png]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503171.gif AIA 171 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503193.gif AIA 193 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503304.gif AIA 304 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/2015031600.gif AIA 1600 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503hmi.gif HMI movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c2.gif C2 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c3.gif C3 movie] 
movie from CORIMP catalogue:
http://alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu/CORIMP/realtime/soho/lasco/detections/2015/03/15/cme_ims_orig_20150315_000006/movie_C3.html

=References=
ElEvo model: Möstl et al. 2015 Nature Communications, open access: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-17T08:54:17Z

Moestlc: /* Video Data */

=Comment Section=
*varSITI campaign event
*Largest geomagnetic storm at Earth for solar cycle 24, this event registered a Dst peak of -228 nT.
*Based on both the in-situ signature of the event and the ENLIL solar wind prediction for this date, I think it is likely a CIR played a role in making it so strong. There is a strong coronal hole at the South Pole and the ENLIL simulation ([[http://helioweather.net/archive/2015/03/cmes201503_vel3r2e1b.mp4]]) shows a fairly fast stream that interacts with the CME, and this fast speed stream (~600 km/s) shows up in ACE data as well. Based on the C2 and C3 images for the day, it appears there is a slow CME launching around noon on the 14th with a small but visible filament. On the morning of the 15th a partial halo CME, associated with a long duration flare that fell just short of M class (C9.1) and from the same active region (AR 12297), launched propagating to the East of the Sun Earth line. I think it is likely that an interaction between the CME+shock of this event and the previous blob CME, as well as the added energy from the CIR and fast speed stream behind the CME caused the severity of the geomagnetic activity at the Earth (Hess)
*This super storm is produced through a combination of effects: (1) strong magnetic field in the sheath region (> 25 nT at peak)) and ejecta (>30 nT at peak, (2) Bs field encompasses the entire duration of the ejecta, due to that the axis of the flux rope is highly inclined toward the north-south direction, (3) the interaction with CIR, and almost contained in a CIR region. Such containment by CIR prevents the expansion of the flux rope, thus makes the flux rope small in size by strong in magnetic field (Jie Zhang).
*This may be a kind of CME-CME interaction event. We have a large filament, embedded in a magnetic flux rope, close to the AR which released this highly geoeffective CME. Part of the filament (or flux rope) erupted - or at least, left the low corona - already on March 14 (around 12UT). The final and major eruption on March 15 seems to interact with the first disturbance. The interacting sectors might propagate close to Earth direction. This might be a reason for the complex in-situ signatures (two flux ropes?) as well as the increased geoeffectiveness (Manuela Temmer).
*With the ElEvo model results for the March 15 04:00 UT CME shock propagation from Sun to Earth, I need a quite low value of gamma to get the Wind speed and arrival time right, which reflects that this CME did not seem to experience much drag during interplanetary propagation. If the CME apex is really about 40° away from the Earth (as indicated by the source region position), I think its very surprising that Earth is hit by the flux rope. I think this is only possible if the flux rope had a very low inclination to the ecliptic, or as said before that there was some interaction with the CME on March 14. Maybe the drag parameter is low because the CIR was pushing from behind, adding an additional force? (Christian Moestl)
*For Christian's high inclination problem, I think that an explanation is the deflection. My theory proposed that fast CMEs deflect toward east and slow CMEs deflect toward west (Wang et al., JGR, 119, 5117, 2014). Also there are in situ signatures of such possible deflection. From fitting results of my velocity-modified flux rope model, we find there is significant propagation velocity of the CME at 1 AU which is perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line (in +y direction in GSE coordinates). (Yuming Wang)

=USTC mini workshop discussion[2015/06/12]=

==Initiation near the Sun==

Flare: raise/decay time 58 min / 6 hours

CME: Initial speed ~500 - 1000 km/s

Complex eruption. At least three different filaments involved.

Two smaller ones on the left erupted. The longer one on the right was active but not erupted.

First jet like filament eruption at the time of ~00:38UT produced a short duration C2 flare. Second filament eruption at the time of ~01:15UT (flare onset) produced the long duration C9 flare and the CME.

The source region of the flare/filament was not located near the main neutral line of the strong main bipolar region. It was located on the south west of the main active region.

Strong magnetic field cancellation observed near the source region of the second filament eruption.

There was an extended coronal hole in the south west of the active region which might be the source of the fast stream following the ICME.

==Propagation in the interplanetary space==

There was consensus that CME1 on the March 14 and CME2 on the March 15 were not interacted. There was no evidence of interaction in LASCO C2 and C3 images.

From Phil Hess’s measurements based on the spherical bubble model, the CME speed at 4 Rs near 02:00UT is 1100 km/s. It decelerated to 750 km/s at the 20 Rs at 05:30 UT. The propagation direction of this CME is S11W39.

From the GCS model fitting results done by USTC STEP group, the propagation direction is S11W46.

The speed at 02:00UT was 1000 km/s. When it propagated at 20 Rs near the time of 06:06UT, its speed is 720km/s.

From the USTC’s Ice Cream Cone model’s fitting results, this CME propagated with the speed of 807 km/s in the LASCO field of view. The propagation direction is S10W35. The angular width is 115 degree.

Observed transit time: 51 hours (flare onset to shock arrival) || 57 hours (flare onset to ICME arrival)

Model calculations:

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=500 km/s

Results SPM2 [Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, http://www.spaceweather.ac.cn/groupmodel.php?group=sigma ] 53 hours for shock

DMB [Bojan Vrsnak, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBM/dbm.php]: 57 hours for ICME

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=400 km/s

Results: SPM2[Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, ] 60 hours for shock

DMB[Bojan Vrsnak]: 63 hours for ICME

==In situ properties and geoeffectiveness==

Questions:

What is the connection between the solar and interplanetary observations?

Why this high inclined and not earth directed CME arrived at the Earth?

Why is this a super geomagnetic storm considering the small flare of C9 class and intermediate CME speed of less than 1000 km/s?

Why is the magnetic field irregular? i. e. not a typical magnetic cloud?

==Geospace response==

=Image Data=

==In-situ data==
[[File:20150315_magplasma.png]]
[[File:20150315_mag.png]] 
*These are in-situ plots based on the ACE daily text files, I will update them when the cdf data becomes available. In these plots the shock is very clear, but beyond that any ejecta signature is weak and there does not appear to be any strong Magnetic cloud. But there are two clear and distinct periods of strong -Bz. (Hess)

==LASCO/Kanzelhöhe==
Image collection of white light and chromospheric data, showing two disturbances and the partly erupted filament which is related to the CME producing AR:
[link http://www.uni-graz.at/~temmerma/download/varsiti/20150315.pdf]

==GOES Plot==
[[File:20150315_goes.png]]

==SOHO/LASO measurement==
[[File:Hess_heights.png|700px]]
*Height-Time plot based on SOHO/LASCO measurement
[[File:Hess_velocity.png|700px]]
*Velocity-Time plot from SOHO/LASCO H-T measurement
*Height-Time measurement data from SOHO/LASCO: [[Hess_measurement.docx]]

measurements from CORIMP (max speed given as 918 km/s, central PA as 262)
http://alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu/CORIMP/realtime/soho/lasco/detections/2015/03/15/cme_kins/plot_kins_quartiles_savgol_20150315_000006.jpg

== Interplanetary Propagation ==
Christian Möstl and Tanja Rollett:
ElEvo results (parameters already tweaked so it matches Wind arrivals):
shock arrival at Wind: March 17 03:50 UT
arrival speed 665 km/s

Wind observations (taken from the Wu et al. draft):
shock arrival March 17 03:59 UT
arrival speed of the sheath is 500- 600 km/s, about 100 km/s less than the ElEvo arrival speed.

This model/plot can be adjusted very easily if you think the CME initial speed, direction and launch time should be different.

initial CME parameters:
inital speed at 15 Rs: 1120 km/s, at time 2015 March 15 04:00 UT, direction to Earth west 39°
the speed was taken from Kevin Schenk real time email, consistent with Gopalswamy et al. proceeding; same for direction. Thus I assume that the source region position is similar to the CME direction. Because the flare happens inside the AR and there are no large coronal holes nearby, it should be relatively safe to assume this direction as the CME propagation direction. The asymmetric halo with more material to the west of the Sun also supports this. Other Parameters: background wind: 400 km/s, gamma: 0.1, ellipse aspect ratio 1.6, full width: 100° in heliospheric longitude.

We have also experimented with the initial conditions given by the above measurements (by Philipp Hess) for the CME shock: launch on March 15 08:06 UT, at 28.7 Rs, speed of 700 km/s
but the arrival times are about 0.5-1 day to late compared to the observed one at Wind, even with very extreme choices for gamma and the ellipse aspect ratio the observed arrival time is not reproduced. Thus, it seems that the (projected) initial speed is too low.

[[File:elevo_15_mar_2015_storm_small2.png]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503171.gif AIA 171 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503193.gif AIA 193 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503304.gif AIA 304 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/2015031600.gif AIA 1600 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503hmi.gif HMI movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c2.gif C2 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c3.gif C3 movie] 
movie from CORIMP catalogue:
http://alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu/CORIMP/realtime/soho/lasco/detections/2015/03/15/cme_ims_orig_20150315_000006/movie_C3.html

=References=
ElEvo model: Möstl et al. 2015 Nature Communications, open access: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-17T08:54:01Z

Moestlc: /* SOHO/LASO measurement */

=Comment Section=
*varSITI campaign event
*Largest geomagnetic storm at Earth for solar cycle 24, this event registered a Dst peak of -228 nT.
*Based on both the in-situ signature of the event and the ENLIL solar wind prediction for this date, I think it is likely a CIR played a role in making it so strong. There is a strong coronal hole at the South Pole and the ENLIL simulation ([[http://helioweather.net/archive/2015/03/cmes201503_vel3r2e1b.mp4]]) shows a fairly fast stream that interacts with the CME, and this fast speed stream (~600 km/s) shows up in ACE data as well. Based on the C2 and C3 images for the day, it appears there is a slow CME launching around noon on the 14th with a small but visible filament. On the morning of the 15th a partial halo CME, associated with a long duration flare that fell just short of M class (C9.1) and from the same active region (AR 12297), launched propagating to the East of the Sun Earth line. I think it is likely that an interaction between the CME+shock of this event and the previous blob CME, as well as the added energy from the CIR and fast speed stream behind the CME caused the severity of the geomagnetic activity at the Earth (Hess)
*This super storm is produced through a combination of effects: (1) strong magnetic field in the sheath region (> 25 nT at peak)) and ejecta (>30 nT at peak, (2) Bs field encompasses the entire duration of the ejecta, due to that the axis of the flux rope is highly inclined toward the north-south direction, (3) the interaction with CIR, and almost contained in a CIR region. Such containment by CIR prevents the expansion of the flux rope, thus makes the flux rope small in size by strong in magnetic field (Jie Zhang).
*This may be a kind of CME-CME interaction event. We have a large filament, embedded in a magnetic flux rope, close to the AR which released this highly geoeffective CME. Part of the filament (or flux rope) erupted - or at least, left the low corona - already on March 14 (around 12UT). The final and major eruption on March 15 seems to interact with the first disturbance. The interacting sectors might propagate close to Earth direction. This might be a reason for the complex in-situ signatures (two flux ropes?) as well as the increased geoeffectiveness (Manuela Temmer).
*With the ElEvo model results for the March 15 04:00 UT CME shock propagation from Sun to Earth, I need a quite low value of gamma to get the Wind speed and arrival time right, which reflects that this CME did not seem to experience much drag during interplanetary propagation. If the CME apex is really about 40° away from the Earth (as indicated by the source region position), I think its very surprising that Earth is hit by the flux rope. I think this is only possible if the flux rope had a very low inclination to the ecliptic, or as said before that there was some interaction with the CME on March 14. Maybe the drag parameter is low because the CIR was pushing from behind, adding an additional force? (Christian Moestl)
*For Christian's high inclination problem, I think that an explanation is the deflection. My theory proposed that fast CMEs deflect toward east and slow CMEs deflect toward west (Wang et al., JGR, 119, 5117, 2014). Also there are in situ signatures of such possible deflection. From fitting results of my velocity-modified flux rope model, we find there is significant propagation velocity of the CME at 1 AU which is perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line (in +y direction in GSE coordinates). (Yuming Wang)

=USTC mini workshop discussion[2015/06/12]=

==Initiation near the Sun==

Flare: raise/decay time 58 min / 6 hours

CME: Initial speed ~500 - 1000 km/s

Complex eruption. At least three different filaments involved.

Two smaller ones on the left erupted. The longer one on the right was active but not erupted.

First jet like filament eruption at the time of ~00:38UT produced a short duration C2 flare. Second filament eruption at the time of ~01:15UT (flare onset) produced the long duration C9 flare and the CME.

The source region of the flare/filament was not located near the main neutral line of the strong main bipolar region. It was located on the south west of the main active region.

Strong magnetic field cancellation observed near the source region of the second filament eruption.

There was an extended coronal hole in the south west of the active region which might be the source of the fast stream following the ICME.

==Propagation in the interplanetary space==

There was consensus that CME1 on the March 14 and CME2 on the March 15 were not interacted. There was no evidence of interaction in LASCO C2 and C3 images.

From Phil Hess’s measurements based on the spherical bubble model, the CME speed at 4 Rs near 02:00UT is 1100 km/s. It decelerated to 750 km/s at the 20 Rs at 05:30 UT. The propagation direction of this CME is S11W39.

From the GCS model fitting results done by USTC STEP group, the propagation direction is S11W46.

The speed at 02:00UT was 1000 km/s. When it propagated at 20 Rs near the time of 06:06UT, its speed is 720km/s.

From the USTC’s Ice Cream Cone model’s fitting results, this CME propagated with the speed of 807 km/s in the LASCO field of view. The propagation direction is S10W35. The angular width is 115 degree.

Observed transit time: 51 hours (flare onset to shock arrival) || 57 hours (flare onset to ICME arrival)

Model calculations:

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=500 km/s

Results SPM2 [Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, http://www.spaceweather.ac.cn/groupmodel.php?group=sigma ] 53 hours for shock

DMB [Bojan Vrsnak, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBM/dbm.php]: 57 hours for ICME

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=400 km/s

Results: SPM2[Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, ] 60 hours for shock

DMB[Bojan Vrsnak]: 63 hours for ICME

==In situ properties and geoeffectiveness==

Questions:

What is the connection between the solar and interplanetary observations?

Why this high inclined and not earth directed CME arrived at the Earth?

Why is this a super geomagnetic storm considering the small flare of C9 class and intermediate CME speed of less than 1000 km/s?

Why is the magnetic field irregular? i. e. not a typical magnetic cloud?

==Geospace response==

=Image Data=

==In-situ data==
[[File:20150315_magplasma.png]]
[[File:20150315_mag.png]] 
*These are in-situ plots based on the ACE daily text files, I will update them when the cdf data becomes available. In these plots the shock is very clear, but beyond that any ejecta signature is weak and there does not appear to be any strong Magnetic cloud. But there are two clear and distinct periods of strong -Bz. (Hess)

==LASCO/Kanzelhöhe==
Image collection of white light and chromospheric data, showing two disturbances and the partly erupted filament which is related to the CME producing AR:
[link http://www.uni-graz.at/~temmerma/download/varsiti/20150315.pdf]

==GOES Plot==
[[File:20150315_goes.png]]

==SOHO/LASO measurement==
[[File:Hess_heights.png|700px]]
*Height-Time plot based on SOHO/LASCO measurement
[[File:Hess_velocity.png|700px]]
*Velocity-Time plot from SOHO/LASCO H-T measurement
*Height-Time measurement data from SOHO/LASCO: [[Hess_measurement.docx]]

measurements from CORIMP (max speed given as 918 km/s, central PA as 262)
http://alshamess.ifa.hawaii.edu/CORIMP/realtime/soho/lasco/detections/2015/03/15/cme_kins/plot_kins_quartiles_savgol_20150315_000006.jpg

== Interplanetary Propagation ==
Christian Möstl and Tanja Rollett:
ElEvo results (parameters already tweaked so it matches Wind arrivals):
shock arrival at Wind: March 17 03:50 UT
arrival speed 665 km/s

Wind observations (taken from the Wu et al. draft):
shock arrival March 17 03:59 UT
arrival speed of the sheath is 500- 600 km/s, about 100 km/s less than the ElEvo arrival speed.

This model/plot can be adjusted very easily if you think the CME initial speed, direction and launch time should be different.

initial CME parameters:
inital speed at 15 Rs: 1120 km/s, at time 2015 March 15 04:00 UT, direction to Earth west 39°
the speed was taken from Kevin Schenk real time email, consistent with Gopalswamy et al. proceeding; same for direction. Thus I assume that the source region position is similar to the CME direction. Because the flare happens inside the AR and there are no large coronal holes nearby, it should be relatively safe to assume this direction as the CME propagation direction. The asymmetric halo with more material to the west of the Sun also supports this. Other Parameters: background wind: 400 km/s, gamma: 0.1, ellipse aspect ratio 1.6, full width: 100° in heliospheric longitude.

We have also experimented with the initial conditions given by the above measurements (by Philipp Hess) for the CME shock: launch on March 15 08:06 UT, at 28.7 Rs, speed of 700 km/s
but the arrival times are about 0.5-1 day to late compared to the observed one at Wind, even with very extreme choices for gamma and the ellipse aspect ratio the observed arrival time is not reproduced. Thus, it seems that the (projected) initial speed is too low.

[[File:elevo_15_mar_2015_storm_small2.png]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503171.gif AIA 171 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503193.gif AIA 193 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503304.gif AIA 304 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/2015031600.gif AIA 1600 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503hmi.gif HMI movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c2.gif C2 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c3.gif C3 movie] 

=References=
ElEvo model: Möstl et al. 2015 Nature Communications, open access: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-17T08:51:33Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

=Comment Section=
*varSITI campaign event
*Largest geomagnetic storm at Earth for solar cycle 24, this event registered a Dst peak of -228 nT.
*Based on both the in-situ signature of the event and the ENLIL solar wind prediction for this date, I think it is likely a CIR played a role in making it so strong. There is a strong coronal hole at the South Pole and the ENLIL simulation ([[http://helioweather.net/archive/2015/03/cmes201503_vel3r2e1b.mp4]]) shows a fairly fast stream that interacts with the CME, and this fast speed stream (~600 km/s) shows up in ACE data as well. Based on the C2 and C3 images for the day, it appears there is a slow CME launching around noon on the 14th with a small but visible filament. On the morning of the 15th a partial halo CME, associated with a long duration flare that fell just short of M class (C9.1) and from the same active region (AR 12297), launched propagating to the East of the Sun Earth line. I think it is likely that an interaction between the CME+shock of this event and the previous blob CME, as well as the added energy from the CIR and fast speed stream behind the CME caused the severity of the geomagnetic activity at the Earth (Hess)
*This super storm is produced through a combination of effects: (1) strong magnetic field in the sheath region (> 25 nT at peak)) and ejecta (>30 nT at peak, (2) Bs field encompasses the entire duration of the ejecta, due to that the axis of the flux rope is highly inclined toward the north-south direction, (3) the interaction with CIR, and almost contained in a CIR region. Such containment by CIR prevents the expansion of the flux rope, thus makes the flux rope small in size by strong in magnetic field (Jie Zhang).
*This may be a kind of CME-CME interaction event. We have a large filament, embedded in a magnetic flux rope, close to the AR which released this highly geoeffective CME. Part of the filament (or flux rope) erupted - or at least, left the low corona - already on March 14 (around 12UT). The final and major eruption on March 15 seems to interact with the first disturbance. The interacting sectors might propagate close to Earth direction. This might be a reason for the complex in-situ signatures (two flux ropes?) as well as the increased geoeffectiveness (Manuela Temmer).
*With the ElEvo model results for the March 15 04:00 UT CME shock propagation from Sun to Earth, I need a quite low value of gamma to get the Wind speed and arrival time right, which reflects that this CME did not seem to experience much drag during interplanetary propagation. If the CME apex is really about 40° away from the Earth (as indicated by the source region position), I think its very surprising that Earth is hit by the flux rope. I think this is only possible if the flux rope had a very low inclination to the ecliptic, or as said before that there was some interaction with the CME on March 14. Maybe the drag parameter is low because the CIR was pushing from behind, adding an additional force? (Christian Moestl)
*For Christian's high inclination problem, I think that an explanation is the deflection. My theory proposed that fast CMEs deflect toward east and slow CMEs deflect toward west (Wang et al., JGR, 119, 5117, 2014). Also there are in situ signatures of such possible deflection. From fitting results of my velocity-modified flux rope model, we find there is significant propagation velocity of the CME at 1 AU which is perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line (in +y direction in GSE coordinates). (Yuming Wang)

=USTC mini workshop discussion[2015/06/12]=

==Initiation near the Sun==

Flare: raise/decay time 58 min / 6 hours

CME: Initial speed ~500 - 1000 km/s

Complex eruption. At least three different filaments involved.

Two smaller ones on the left erupted. The longer one on the right was active but not erupted.

First jet like filament eruption at the time of ~00:38UT produced a short duration C2 flare. Second filament eruption at the time of ~01:15UT (flare onset) produced the long duration C9 flare and the CME.

The source region of the flare/filament was not located near the main neutral line of the strong main bipolar region. It was located on the south west of the main active region.

Strong magnetic field cancellation observed near the source region of the second filament eruption.

There was an extended coronal hole in the south west of the active region which might be the source of the fast stream following the ICME.

==Propagation in the interplanetary space==

There was consensus that CME1 on the March 14 and CME2 on the March 15 were not interacted. There was no evidence of interaction in LASCO C2 and C3 images.

From Phil Hess’s measurements based on the spherical bubble model, the CME speed at 4 Rs near 02:00UT is 1100 km/s. It decelerated to 750 km/s at the 20 Rs at 05:30 UT. The propagation direction of this CME is S11W39.

From the GCS model fitting results done by USTC STEP group, the propagation direction is S11W46.

The speed at 02:00UT was 1000 km/s. When it propagated at 20 Rs near the time of 06:06UT, its speed is 720km/s.

From the USTC’s Ice Cream Cone model’s fitting results, this CME propagated with the speed of 807 km/s in the LASCO field of view. The propagation direction is S10W35. The angular width is 115 degree.

Observed transit time: 51 hours (flare onset to shock arrival) || 57 hours (flare onset to ICME arrival)

Model calculations:

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=500 km/s

Results SPM2 [Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, http://www.spaceweather.ac.cn/groupmodel.php?group=sigma ] 53 hours for shock

DMB [Bojan Vrsnak, http://oh.geof.unizg.hr/DBM/dbm.php]: 57 hours for ICME

Assume: CME initial speed = 800km/s

Background solar wind speed=400 km/s

Results: SPM2[Zhao et al. JGR, 2014, ] 60 hours for shock

DMB[Bojan Vrsnak]: 63 hours for ICME

==In situ properties and geoeffectiveness==

Questions:

What is the connection between the solar and interplanetary observations?

Why this high inclined and not earth directed CME arrived at the Earth?

Why is this a super geomagnetic storm considering the small flare of C9 class and intermediate CME speed of less than 1000 km/s?

Why is the magnetic field irregular? i. e. not a typical magnetic cloud?

==Geospace response==

=Image Data=

==In-situ data==
[[File:20150315_magplasma.png]]
[[File:20150315_mag.png]] 
*These are in-situ plots based on the ACE daily text files, I will update them when the cdf data becomes available. In these plots the shock is very clear, but beyond that any ejecta signature is weak and there does not appear to be any strong Magnetic cloud. But there are two clear and distinct periods of strong -Bz. (Hess)

==LASCO/Kanzelhöhe==
Image collection of white light and chromospheric data, showing two disturbances and the partly erupted filament which is related to the CME producing AR:
[link http://www.uni-graz.at/~temmerma/download/varsiti/20150315.pdf]

==GOES Plot==
[[File:20150315_goes.png]]

==SOHO/LASO measurement==
[[File:Hess_heights.png|700px]]
*Height-Time plot based on SOHO/LASCO measurement
[[File:Hess_velocity.png|700px]]
*Velocity-Time plot from SOHO/LASCO H-T measurement
*Height-Time measurement data from SOHO/LASCO: [[Hess_measurement.docx]]

== Interplanetary Propagation ==
Christian Möstl and Tanja Rollett:
ElEvo results (parameters already tweaked so it matches Wind arrivals):
shock arrival at Wind: March 17 03:50 UT
arrival speed 665 km/s

Wind observations (taken from the Wu et al. draft):
shock arrival March 17 03:59 UT
arrival speed of the sheath is 500- 600 km/s, about 100 km/s less than the ElEvo arrival speed.

This model/plot can be adjusted very easily if you think the CME initial speed, direction and launch time should be different.

initial CME parameters:
inital speed at 15 Rs: 1120 km/s, at time 2015 March 15 04:00 UT, direction to Earth west 39°
the speed was taken from Kevin Schenk real time email, consistent with Gopalswamy et al. proceeding; same for direction. Thus I assume that the source region position is similar to the CME direction. Because the flare happens inside the AR and there are no large coronal holes nearby, it should be relatively safe to assume this direction as the CME propagation direction. The asymmetric halo with more material to the west of the Sun also supports this. Other Parameters: background wind: 400 km/s, gamma: 0.1, ellipse aspect ratio 1.6, full width: 100° in heliospheric longitude.

We have also experimented with the initial conditions given by the above measurements (by Philipp Hess) for the CME shock: launch on March 15 08:06 UT, at 28.7 Rs, speed of 700 km/s
but the arrival times are about 0.5-1 day to late compared to the observed one at Wind, even with very extreme choices for gamma and the ellipse aspect ratio the observed arrival time is not reproduced. Thus, it seems that the (projected) initial speed is too low.

[[File:elevo_15_mar_2015_storm_small2.png]]

=Video Data=
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503171.gif AIA 171 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503193.gif AIA 193 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503304.gif AIA 304 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/2015031600.gif AIA 1600 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503hmi.gif HMI movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c2.gif C2 movie] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/201503c3.gif C3 movie] 

=References=
ElEvo model: Möstl et al. 2015 Nature Communications, open access: http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150526/ncomms8135/full/ncomms8135.html

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-12T08:27:55Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T15:06:13Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T10:09:35Z

Moestlc: /* References */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T10:08:55Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T10:08:42Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T10:08:21Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

File:Elevo 15 mar 2015 storm small2.png

2015-06-11T10:08:01Z

Moestlc:

File:Elevo 15 mar 2015 storm small.jpg

2015-06-11T10:05:20Z

Moestlc:

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T10:05:04Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T10:01:36Z

Moestlc: /* Interplanetary Propagation */

File:Elevo 15 mar 2015 storm.png

2015-06-11T10:00:28Z

Moestlc:

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T09:59:49Z

Moestlc: /* Image Data */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T09:57:51Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

03/17/2015 04:00:00 UTC

2015-06-11T09:57:34Z

Moestlc: /* Comment Section */

07/14/2012 17:00:00 UTC

2013-08-14T13:57:28Z

Moestlc: /* In-Situ Data */

=Comment Section=
*A perfect CME-ICME chain event (J. Zhang)
**classical ICME feature: shock + sheath + magnetic cloud
**strong solar signature: X1 flare (S17W08); halo CME, fast and bright
*Propagation Direction is very close to the Sun Earth Line, making this a good event for comparing observations nearer the Sun to in-situ signatures (P. Hess)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2012071400.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2012071400.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2012071400.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock. 

 
The results from geometrical modeling (speeds and arrival times) in comparison to the in situ data from the Wind spacecraft (C. Moestl). The magnetic cloud is of ESW type (right handed), with the flux rope axis pointing southward; the MC has very long duration (48 hours). The shock arrival time is 2012 July 14 17:38 UT. 

[[File:Data_july122012.png|500px]]
 

== Heliospheric Imaging ==
CME track observed in STEREO-A Jmap with SATPLOT software: (C. Moestl) 
[[File:satplot_jmap_july122012.png|400px]] 
results of geometrical modeling (C. Moestl): 
[[File:Geometry_12_july2012.jpeg‎|400px]] 

Jmaps along the CME leading edge position (about <math>7^{\circ}</math> S of the ecliptic) from STEREO A and B
[[File:20120712JmapA.png|500 px]] [[File:20120712JmapB.png|500 px]] 

De-projected Height Time Plots of the shock and ejecta fronts as obtained from the GCS (measured by Hess) (for GCS details, see Thernisien 2006) along with velocity and acceleration profiles determined from the Aerodynamic Drag Model.

[[File:20120712stack.png]] 

Fitting parameters in GCS Model: Carrington Longitude: 80.5738 degrees, Latitude: -8.9442 degrees, Tilt Angle: 58.1364 degrees, Aspect Ratio: .437363, Half Angular Width: 31.8636 

==Flare Data==
*[[File:eve_flare_2012_07_12.pdf]] EVE and GOES flare profiles

*GOES X-RAY FLUX
[[File:20120712_goes.png|500px]] 
The GOES X-ray Flux of the flare associated with the event. The vertical line approximately denotes the flare peak time. 

=Video Data=
==SDO observations==
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/enif/aia_12072012_94.avi AIA-94] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/JieZhang/20120712_1600-1730_AIA_171.mp4 AIA-171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/enif/aia_12072012_211.avi AIA-211] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/JieZhang/20120712_1600-1730_HMI_B.mp4 HMI B] 

==STEREO observations==
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/cor2A.avi COR2A] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/cor2B.avi COR2B] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi1Ard.avi HI1A] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi1Brd.avi HI1B] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi2Ard.avi HI2A] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi2Brd.avi HI2B] 

=References=

07/14/2012 17:00:00 UTC

2013-08-14T13:40:03Z

Moestlc: /* In-Situ Data */

=Comment Section=
*A perfect CME-ICME chain event (J. Zhang)
**classical ICME feature: shock + sheath + magnetic cloud
**strong solar signature: X1 flare (S17W08); halo CME, fast and bright
*Propagation Direction is very close to the Sun Earth Line, making this a good event for comparing observations nearer the Sun to in-situ signatures (P. Hess)

=Image Data=
==In-Situ Data==
A combination of SWEPAM and MAG data from the ACE Satellite: 
[[File:plot_sw_mag_plasma_2012071400.png|350px]]
[[File:plot_sw_mag_2012071400.png|400px]]
[[File:plot_sw_vel_2012071400.png|350px]] 
The blue lines are an approximation of the CME cloud and the red line denotes the shock. 

 
The results from geometrical modeling in comparison to the in situ data from the Wind spacecraft (C. Moestl). The magnetic cloud is of ESW type (right handed), with the flux rope axis pointing southward; the MC has very long duration (48 hours). The shock arrival time is 2012 July 14 17:38 UT. 

[[File:Data_july122012.png|500px]]
 

== Heliospheric Imaging ==
CME track observed in STEREO-A Jmap with SATPLOT software: (C. Moestl) 
[[File:satplot_jmap_july122012.png|400px]] 
results of geometrical modeling (C. Moestl): 
[[File:Geometry_12_july2012.jpeg‎|400px]] 

Jmaps along the CME leading edge position (about <math>7^{\circ}</math> S of the ecliptic) from STEREO A and B
[[File:20120712JmapA.png|500 px]] [[File:20120712JmapB.png|500 px]] 

De-projected Height Time Plots of the shock and ejecta fronts as obtained from the GCS (measured by Hess) (for GCS details, see Thernisien 2006) along with velocity and acceleration profiles determined from the Aerodynamic Drag Model.

[[File:20120712stack.png]] 

Fitting parameters in GCS Model: Carrington Longitude: 80.5738 degrees, Latitude: -8.9442 degrees, Tilt Angle: 58.1364 degrees, Aspect Ratio: .437363, Half Angular Width: 31.8636 

==Flare Data==
*[[File:eve_flare_2012_07_12.pdf]] EVE and GOES flare profiles

*GOES X-RAY FLUX
[[File:20120712_goes.png|500px]] 
The GOES X-ray Flux of the flare associated with the event. The vertical line approximately denotes the flare peak time. 

=Video Data=
==SDO observations==
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/enif/aia_12072012_94.avi AIA-94] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/JieZhang/20120712_1600-1730_AIA_171.mp4 AIA-171] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/enif/aia_12072012_211.avi AIA-211] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/JieZhang/20120712_1600-1730_HMI_B.mp4 HMI B] 

==STEREO observations==
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/cor2A.avi COR2A] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/cor2B.avi COR2B] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi1Ard.avi HI1A] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi1Brd.avi HI1B] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi2Ard.avi HI2A] 
[http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/phess4/hi2Brd.avi HI2B] 

=References=

Working Group 1

2013-06-20T10:27:30Z

Moestlc: /* remaining questions (forum) */

Data group led by Jie Zhang (USA) and Christian Moestl (Austria)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==
 
*'''Identify''' all Earth-Affecting ICMEs during the STEREO era (2007-today)
*'''Track''' these events from the Sun to the Earth, and fully measure, characterize and quantify their properties and evolution from the Sun to the Earth
*Provide a comprehensive event '''database''' for statistical study, for creating empirical evolution and prediction models, for theoretical understanding, and for comparing and validating numerical models
 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

 
===What are the criteria of Earth-affecting CMEs?===
*ICME signatures: primarily based on the strength and duration of magnetic field, low temperature and low density using ACE data.
**geo-effectiveness events will be a subset of the list (largely depending on the Bs)

===Definition and terminology of ICMEs?===
*ICME includes entire transient interval, including the shock, shock sheath, ICME ejectum
**ICME arrival time means the arrival of the shock and the disturbance (commonly used)
**magnetic driver arrival time meas the arrival of the ejectum, magnetic cloud (flux rope), magnetic-cloud-like (from modeling/understanding perspective)
*** magnetic driver versus CME ejecta (how to choose the term?)
*** paper by Alexis Rouillard (2011 JASTP) discussed the nomenclature

===What are the main CME parameters which can be derived from remote and in situ CME observations?===

===How reliably can we link solar to in situ CME observations?===

===How well can we forecast the ICME parameters from remote observations? Especially, the Bs===

===What is the cause of "stealth" CMEs? ===
*"stealth CME" means that a CME clearly in coronagraph images, but no apparent signatures in coronal disk images, i.e., no flare, no filament eruption, no dimming/wave
*frontside CME may be mistaken as a backside CME; a space weather program for mis-alarming (true negative event)

===What is the cause of "problematic" ICMEs?===
*"Problematic ICMEs" mean that an ICME clearly shown up in in-situ, but there is no apparent front-side halo CME counterpart in the search window (five days)
* "stealth CME" is a subset of "problematic ICME"
* other problematic ICME candidates are extremely faint events in LASCO and SECCHI

===Can we find names for all types of CMEs lacking signatures in any of the three datasets: disk, coronagraph, in situ?===
a first try from Chris Moestl:
there are 2^3=8 possible combinations: (no, no, no excluded; yes, yes, yes, is a "classic" CME), leaves 6:
*stealth CME: disk (no), coronagraph (yes), in situ (yes)
*stealth CME not arriving: disk (no), coronagraph (yes), in situ (no): essentially a stealth CME which either does not arrive at or misses in situ
*problematic ICME: disk (no?), coronagraph (no), in situ (yes)
*??? another type of problematic ICME: disk (yes), coronagraph (no), in situ (yes): does this kind of event exist?
*confined flare: disk (yes), coronagraph (no), in situ (no)
*classic CME not arriving: disk (yes), coronagraph (yes), in situ (no): essentially a classic CME which either does not arrive at or misses in situ

===Are there limb CMEs that arrive at the Earth (the driver)?===

=== Can CME cross the heliospheric current sheet? ===

===Can we find examples of front-side full halo CMEs in C2, but have no ICME signatures at 1 AU? Does this kind of event exist or not?===
*an issue for space weather false-alarming? reasons
** deflection
***location of coronal holes
***effect of heliospheric current sheet

** rotation

** lack of Bs
** may just disappear or "dissolve" (???)

===Interacting CMEs and ICMEs?===
*what are the signatures?
*how the evolution is affected?
*how geo-effectiveness is affected?

===''energetic particles''===

=== Can we predict Bz and geomagnetic storm strength correctly for the July 12-14 2012 campaign event from a combination of observations, empirical modeling and simulations?===
 

== '''Special Events (with WG3 simulation and WG4 campaign events)''' ==

 
===What are event periods which need special attention for linking solar to in situ observations?===
*use simulation results from WG3, insights from WG4
*e.g. interacting events, very fast or very slow CMEs, or other special properties

 
'''happy textbook event:'''
*12-14 July 2012
'''interesting event''': CME with very slowly erupting signatures (dimming, cavity); traveling in about 3 days from Sun to 1 AU (although low initial and low arrival speed); also caused a geomagnetic storm (Dst min around -100 nT)
*5-8 Oct 2012

 
nice interaction of 2 CMEs:
*15-18 February 2011

other more complicated event periods:
*early March 2012
*late July to early August 2010 (many analyses already published) 
*....

== '''Methods''' ==

 
===How to measure 3-D geometric and kinematic properties of CMEs in the corona, e.g., FOVs of COR1, COR2 and HI-1?===
*croissant modeling a la Thernisien et al. (software available in IDL SolarSoft: "rtsccguicloud")
*....
 

===How to measure 3-D geometric and kinematic properties of CMEs far from the Sun, e.g., FOVs of HI-2?===
*Geometrical modeling, approximating the CME front with geometrical shapes (points, circles). The IDL SolarSoft SATPLOT software can be used to extract and model time-elongation tracks of CMEs from STEREO/COR2/HI1/HI2 Jmaps.
*....
 
===How to reconstruct the 3-D structure of ICMEs from in-situ observations?===
*shock analysis
*sizes of sheath regions, magnetic clouds
*categorization of magnetic structures into magnetic clouds, magnetic flux ropes, magnetic cloud-like, ejecta, complex ejecta
*flux rope modeling:
#minimum variance analysis
#Grad-Shafranov method (non-force-free)
#force-free cylindrical flux ropes
#new models?
*....
 
=== How to measure the geomagnetic effects? ===

*geomagnetic indices (Dst, Kp)
*....
 

=='''Progress at workshop in Hvar June 2013'''==
 
===WG1 tasks for Hvar workshop===
#'''verify the master list, clean the list''' (only events in 2012 left)
#discuss what parameters will be in the event list? who does what?
##how to determine the velocity? especially for the true 3-D velocity?
##elongation angle to distance and velocity?
##what is the acceleration profile of CMEs through the interplanetary space? (for theoretical analysis)
##radio observation
#identify special events: happy one and surprising ones (done, more?)
#address the question of stealth CMEs, and problematic ICMEs (some identified)
#ask WG2/3 for inputs on "focus events" (!)
#
 

=== WG1 + WG4 ===
*happy event: July 12 - 14, 2012
*"stealth" event: Oct. 5 - 8, 2012

=== WG1 Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===
All presentations from the workshop can be found at [[ISEST Presentations]]
*Ewa Chmielewska: Solar eruptions observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory
*Yuming Wang: Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
*Philippe Lamy: ARTEMIS II: A Second Generation Catalog of LASCO Coronal Mass Ejections
*Li Feng: Reconstruct the 3D CME morphology with a mask-fitting method
*Manuela Temmer: Interaction process of the CME-CME event from February 14-15, 2011
*Chenglong Shen: Deflected propagation of the 2008 September 13 CME in the heliosphere
*Christian Moestl: Connecting remote to in situ observations of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU
*Alexis Ruffenach: Statistical analysis of magnetic cloud erosion by magnetic reconnection
*Nadya Nikolaeva: Magnetic storm generation by various types of solar wind: event catalog, modeling and prediction

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items'''==
===populate the event data (platform)===
*list of SEPs at Earth, triangulation analysis and SEP intensity (Alexis Rouillard)
*SEP data and injection times, protons and electrons (Allawi Herez Habeeb)
*in situ electron pitch angles (Benoit Lavraud)
*in situ composition data (Luciano Rodriguez)
*SDO/AIA observations including automatic detection of EUV waves and dimmings (Nariaki Nitta, Ewa Chmielewska, Andy Devos)
*STEREO EUVI/COR1 (Nariaki Nitta)
*energetic electrons (Nariaki Nitta)
*HI geometrical modeling (Christian Moestl)
*COR1/COR2/HI1/HI2 data measurements and modeling (Jie Zhang and Philipp Hess)
*PROBA-2 EUV images (Andy Devos)
*Halpha for filaments (Manuela Temmer, Hvar group, Ewa Chmielewska)
*ice cream cone model with LASCO (Chenglong Shen)
*soft X-rays GOES SXI, Hinode XRT (Nariaki Nitta)
*radio data (?)
*magnetograms SDO/HMI (Jie Zhang)
*coronal field modeling, GONG, Wilcox coronal neutral lines (?)
*PFSS model by Marc DeRosa? (Nariaki Nitta)
*add pressure (in situ data) to possibly over-expanding events (?)
*........

'''short term goals (upcoming months):'''
'''by August 31 2013 provide all data for the 2 campaign events:'''
*discussions on the two chosen events (12-14 July 2012, 4-8 October 2012) -> on the "Event Data" page of each event (all groups)
*start using text files of simulation group (synthetic in situ and height-time data)
*establish connection to MiniMax24

'''long term goals (until next workshop):'''
'''by October 2014:'''
*add new events to the "Event Data" list (all groups)
*provide data on all events in "Event Data" (all groups)- inputs for WG2/3 on source CME: width, speed, direction
*what are the scientific questions participants want to tackle with the full event list, and the focus events?
*identify all "stealth" (silent) CMEs?

===remaining questions (forum)===

*email updates (monthly)
*skype telecons (audio only) as necessary and/or every 6 months checking the action items
*1st telecon: december 2013 (at least working group leaders)
*contact persons which could provide additional, needed inputs

Working Group 1

2013-06-20T10:10:49Z

Moestlc: /* remaining questions (forum) */

Working Group 1

2013-06-20T10:09:49Z

Moestlc: /* remaining questions (forum) */

Working Group 1

2013-06-20T10:07:42Z

Moestlc: /* remaining questions (forum) */

Data group led by Jie Zhang (USA) and Christian Moestl (Austria)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==
 
*'''Identify''' all Earth-Affecting ICMEs during the STEREO era (2007-today)
*'''Track''' these events from the Sun to the Earth, and fully measure, characterize and quantify their properties and evolution from the Sun to the Earth
*Provide a comprehensive event '''database''' for statistical study, for creating empirical evolution and prediction models, for theoretical understanding, and for comparing and validating numerical models
 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

 
===What are the criteria of Earth-affecting CMEs?===
*ICME signatures: primarily based on the strength and duration of magnetic field, low temperature and low density using ACE data.
**geo-effectiveness events will be a subset of the list (largely depending on the Bs)

===Definition and terminology of ICMEs?===
*ICME includes entire transient interval, including the shock, shock sheath, ICME ejectum
**ICME arrival time means the arrival of the shock and the disturbance (commonly used)
**magnetic driver arrival time meas the arrival of the ejectum, magnetic cloud (flux rope), magnetic-cloud-like (from modeling/understanding perspective)
*** magnetic driver versus CME ejecta (how to choose the term?)
*** paper by Alexis Rouillard (2011 JASTP) discussed the nomenclature

===What are the main CME parameters which can be derived from remote and in situ CME observations?===

===How reliably can we link solar to in situ CME observations?===

===How well can we forecast the ICME parameters from remote observations? Especially, the Bs===

===What is the cause of "stealth" CMEs? ===
*"stealth CME" means that a CME clearly in coronagraph images, but no apparent signatures in coronal disk images, i.e., no flare, no filament eruption, no dimming/wave
*frontside CME may be mistaken as a backside CME; a space weather program for mis-alarming (true negative event)

===What is the cause of "problematic" ICMEs?===
*"Problematic ICMEs" mean that an ICME clearly shown up in in-situ, but there is no apparent front-side halo CME counterpart in the search window (five days)
* "stealth CME" is a subset of "problematic ICME"
* other problematic ICME candidates are extremely faint events in LASCO and SECCHI

===Can we find names for all types of CMEs lacking signatures in any of the three datasets: disk, coronagraph, in situ?===
a first try from Chris Moestl:
there are 2^3=8 possible combinations: (no, no, no excluded; yes, yes, yes, is a "classic" CME), leaves 6:
*stealth CME: disk (no), coronagraph (yes), in situ (yes)
*stealth CME not arriving: disk (no), coronagraph (yes), in situ (no): essentially a stealth CME which either does not arrive at or misses in situ
*problematic ICME: disk (no?), coronagraph (no), in situ (yes)
*??? another type of problematic ICME: disk (yes), coronagraph (no), in situ (yes): does this kind of event exist?
*confined flare: disk (yes), coronagraph (no), in situ (no)
*classic CME not arriving: disk (yes), coronagraph (yes), in situ (no): essentially a classic CME which either does not arrive at or misses in situ

===Are there limb CMEs that arrive at the Earth (the driver)?===

=== Can CME cross the heliospheric current sheet? ===

===Can we find examples of front-side full halo CMEs in C2, but have no ICME signatures at 1 AU? Does this kind of event exist or not?===
*an issue for space weather false-alarming? reasons
** deflection
***location of coronal holes
***effect of heliospheric current sheet

** rotation

** lack of Bs
** may just disappear or "dissolve" (???)

===Interacting CMEs and ICMEs?===
*what are the signatures?
*how the evolution is affected?
*how geo-effectiveness is affected?

===''energetic particles''===

=== Can we predict Bz and geomagnetic storm strength correctly for the July 12-14 2012 campaign event from a combination of observations, empirical modeling and simulations?===
 

== '''Special Events (with WG3 simulation and WG4 campaign events)''' ==

 
===What are event periods which need special attention for linking solar to in situ observations?===
*use simulation results from WG3, insights from WG4
*e.g. interacting events, very fast or very slow CMEs, or other special properties

 
'''happy textbook event:'''
*12-14 July 2012
'''interesting event''': CME with very slowly erupting signatures (dimming, cavity); traveling in about 3 days from Sun to 1 AU (although low initial and low arrival speed); also caused a geomagnetic storm (Dst min around -100 nT)
*5-8 Oct 2012

 
nice interaction of 2 CMEs:
*15-18 February 2011

other more complicated event periods:
*early March 2012
*late July to early August 2010 (many analyses already published) 
*....

== '''Methods''' ==

 
===How to measure 3-D geometric and kinematic properties of CMEs in the corona, e.g., FOVs of COR1, COR2 and HI-1?===
*croissant modeling a la Thernisien et al. (software available in IDL SolarSoft: "rtsccguicloud")
*....
 

===How to measure 3-D geometric and kinematic properties of CMEs far from the Sun, e.g., FOVs of HI-2?===
*Geometrical modeling, approximating the CME front with geometrical shapes (points, circles). The IDL SolarSoft SATPLOT software can be used to extract and model time-elongation tracks of CMEs from STEREO/COR2/HI1/HI2 Jmaps.
*....
 
===How to reconstruct the 3-D structure of ICMEs from in-situ observations?===
*shock analysis
*sizes of sheath regions, magnetic clouds
*categorization of magnetic structures into magnetic clouds, magnetic flux ropes, magnetic cloud-like, ejecta, complex ejecta
*flux rope modeling:
#minimum variance analysis
#Grad-Shafranov method (non-force-free)
#force-free cylindrical flux ropes
#new models?
*....
 
=== How to measure the geomagnetic effects? ===

*geomagnetic indices (Dst, Kp)
*....
 

=='''Progress at workshop in Hvar June 2013'''==
 
===WG1 tasks for Hvar workshop===
#'''verify the master list, clean the list''' (only events in 2012 left)
#discuss what parameters will be in the event list? who does what?
##how to determine the velocity? especially for the true 3-D velocity?
##elongation angle to distance and velocity?
##what is the acceleration profile of CMEs through the interplanetary space? (for theoretical analysis)
##radio observation
#identify special events: happy one and surprising ones (done, more?)
#address the question of stealth CMEs, and problematic ICMEs (some identified)
#ask WG2/3 for inputs on "focus events" (!)
#
 

=== WG1 + WG4 ===
*happy event: July 12 - 14, 2012
*"stealth" event: Oct. 5 - 8, 2012

=== WG1 Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===
All presentations from the workshop can be found at [[ISEST Presentations]]
*Ewa Chmielewska: Solar eruptions observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory
*Yuming Wang: Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
*Philippe Lamy: ARTEMIS II: A Second Generation Catalog of LASCO Coronal Mass Ejections
*Li Feng: Reconstruct the 3D CME morphology with a mask-fitting method
*Manuela Temmer: Interaction process of the CME-CME event from February 14-15, 2011
*Chenglong Shen: Deflected propagation of the 2008 September 13 CME in the heliosphere
*Christian Moestl: Connecting remote to in situ observations of 22 coronal mass ejections from the Sun to 1 AU
*Alexis Ruffenach: Statistical analysis of magnetic cloud erosion by magnetic reconnection
*Nadya Nikolaeva: Magnetic storm generation by various types of solar wind: event catalog, modeling and prediction

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items'''==
===populate the event data (platform)===
*list of SEPs at Earth, triangulation analysis and SEP intensity (Alexis Rouillard)
*SEP data and injection times, protons and electrons (Allawi Herez Habeeb)
*in situ electron pitch angles (Benoit Lavraud)
*in situ composition data (Luciano Rodriguez)
*SDO/AIA observations including automatic detection of EUV waves and dimmings (Nariaki Nitta, Ewa Chmielewska, Andy Devos)
*STEREO EUVI/COR1 (Nariaki Nitta)
*energetic electrons (Nariaki Nitta)
*HI geometrical modeling (Christian Moestl)
*COR1/COR2/HI1/HI2 data measurements and modeling (Jie Zhang and Philipp Hess)
*PROBA-2 EUV images (Andy Devos)
*Halpha for filaments (Manuela Temmer, Hvar group, Ewa Chmielewska)
*ice cream cone model with LASCO (Chenglong Shen)
*soft X-rays GOES SXI, Hinode XRT (Nariaki Nitta)
*radio data (?)
*magnetograms SDO/HMI (Jie Zhang)
*coronal field modeling, GONG, Wilcox coronal neutral lines (?)
*PFSS model by Marc DeRosa? (Nariaki Nitta)
*add pressure (in situ data) to possibly over-expanding events (?)
*........

'''short term goals (upcoming months):'''
'''by August 31 2013 provide all data for the 2 campaign events:'''
*discussions on the two chosen events (12-14 July 2012, 4-8 October 2012) -> on the "Event Data" page of each event (all groups)
*start using text files of simulation group (synthetic in situ and height-time data)
*establish connection to MiniMax24

'''long term goals (until next workshop):'''
'''by October 2014:'''
*add new events to the "Event Data" list (all groups)
*provide data on all events in "Event Data" (all groups)- inputs for WG2/3 on source CME: width, speed, direction
*what are the scientific questions participants want to tackle with the full event list, and the focus events?
*identify all "stealth" (silent) CMEs?

===remaining questions (forum)===

*email updates (monthly)
*telecons as necessary and/or every 6 months checking the action items