heliophysics - User contributions [en]

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T08:22:13Z

Fshen: /* Future Plan and Action Items */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation of CMEs===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 

===Propagation and interaction of ICMEs===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact on Geospace===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs) events?
 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time (ejecta, shocks)

* Geo-effectiveness (Bz for single and multi-events)

* Energetic particles (IMF connectivity to shock front)

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months (by the next ISEST workshop), we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 

=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T08:15:26Z

Fshen: /* Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation of CMEs===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 

===Propagation and interaction of ICMEs===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact on Geospace===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs) events?
 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time (ejecta, shocks)

* Geo-effectiveness (Bz for single and multi-events)

* Energetic particles (IMF connectivity to shock front)

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T08:14:23Z

Fshen: /* Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation of CMEs===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 

===Propagation and interaction of ICMEs===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact on Geospace===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs) events?
 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time (ejecta, shocks)

* Geo-effectiveness (Bz events)

* Energetic particles (IMF connectivity to shock front)

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T08:12:19Z

Fshen: /* Impact on Geospace */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation of CMEs===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 

===Propagation and interaction of ICMEs===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact on Geospace===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs) events?
 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T08:02:31Z

Fshen: /* Scientific and Modeling Questions */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation of CMEs===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 

===Propagation and interaction of ICMEs===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact on Geospace===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for propagation of long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs)?
 
=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T08:01:15Z

Fshen: /* Initiation */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation of CMEs===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 

===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for propagation of long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs)?
 
=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:59:46Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.
 
The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model
 
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
 
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for propagation of long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs)?
 
=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?
 
=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:56:12Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model

===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for propagation of long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs)?
=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:53:28Z

Fshen: /* Results of the Workshop and Collaborations */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model

===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for propagation of long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs)?

 

=='''Results of the 2013 Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:52:50Z

Fshen: /* Impact */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model

===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?
* What are the conditions for propagation of long-duration solar energetic particles (SEPs)?

 

=='''Results of the Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 
=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:50:08Z

Fshen: /* Scientific Questions */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific and Modeling Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model

===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 

=='''Results of the Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 
=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:49:19Z

Fshen: /* Initiation */

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*Hydrodynamic ejecta
*Analytic flux-ropes
*Blob-like structures
*Data-driven model

===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 
=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:45:36Z

Fshen: Overview of the models used in ISEST

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 
=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)
 
=='''Overview of the models used in ISEST '''==
*COIN-TVD (Corona-Interplanetary Total Variation Diminishing ): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transients: magnetized plasma blob model
*ENLIL (sumerian god of wind and storms) model: 1RS-21.5RS, WSA (Wang-Sheeley-Arge), transients: hydrodynamic ejecta (Cone or Rope geometry), heliosphere >21.5 Rs – 3D MHD model
*H3DMHD: 1RS-21.5RS, HAF (Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry) model >21.5 RS, 3D MHD model
*SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework, BATSRUS): 1Rs-beyond 1AU: 3D MHD model, transient: analytic magnetic flux rope

Working Group 3

2013-06-20T07:23:08Z

Fshen: Future plan and action items

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Collaborations'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 
=='''Future Plan and Action Items '''==
 
In the next 16 months, we will:
* Make simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1) for all (ENLIL model), and for major CME events (COIN-TVD model)

*Investigate Mechanisms, Processes, Forces, Energies, and Interactions (with WG2 Theory)
*Forecast and validate the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events)

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T12:31:10Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Collaborations/Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T10:20:16Z

Fshen: Results of the Workshop, Collaborations/Future Plans

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop, Collaborations/Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:44:08Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==

===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop, Collaborations and Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=== Future Plan ===
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:43:26Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop, Collaborations and Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=== Future Plan ===
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:42:37Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=== Future Plan ===
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:41:37Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

=== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ===

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

=== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:38:00Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Future Plans'''==
 
=== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ===

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

=== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ===

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

=== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ===

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:36:54Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Future Plans'''==
 
== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T09:36:20Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 
=='''Results of the Workshop and Future Plans'''==
== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-19T07:21:42Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

=='''Scientific Objectives'''==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

=='''Scientific Questions'''==
 
===Initiation===
*What’s the difference among the models to using hydrodynamic (e.g. CONE), Blob-like , Flux rope CMEs?
*Data-driven model
===Propagation and interaction===
*How the corona heating process affect the Propagation?
*How to control the div(B) during the simulation?
*How long the Lorentz force dominates over the aerodynamic drag
*Which processes are involved in ICME-ICME interactions? Magnetic reconnection?
*How ICME-ICME interactions affect the dynamics and structure of ICMEs?
*How high-speed solar wind streams (corotating interacting regions) affect ICMEs?
*How background solar wind exchanges momentum, energies with ICMEs?
*How successive CMEs exchanges momentum, energies with each other?
===Impact===
* What are forecasting-performances of different empirical, analytical, and numerical models?
* How well models reproduce heliospheric kinematics of ICMEs?
* What are the key model-input parameters for CME simulation? Direction? Speed?
* What can be done regarding the geomagnetic-activity forecasting?

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-15T00:19:12Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| Using 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T12:13:37Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions and HCS affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T07:49:40Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|200px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T07:49:07Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T07:48:36Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
|run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T07:47:27Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|200px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T07:47:06Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|200px]]
run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:51:13Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|255px]]
run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20110213-17.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para_2011.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:40:39Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|255px]]
run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:40:14Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|255px]]
run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 February 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:38:42Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]] [[File:51hrs.jpg|255px]]
run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s, launched at 17:24, 13 Feb 2011;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:33:43Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]][[File:51hrs.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

File:51hrs.jpg

2013-06-14T06:33:27Z

Fshen:

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:31:44Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011
{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:35hrs.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
(1) CME1: S0W16, Initial speed: 500 km/s;

(2) CME2: S0W12, Initial speed: 400 km/s, launched 24 hours after CME1;

(3) CME3: S07W06, Initial speed: 1200 km/s, launched 8.5 hours after CME2.
More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

File:35hrs.jpg

2013-06-14T06:28:43Z

Fshen:

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:25:24Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:013.jpg|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

File:013.jpg

2013-06-14T06:24:39Z

Fshen:

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:15:09Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:20120713-15.gif|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/20120713-15.gif] and [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Fshen/Com_para.jpg]
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

Working Group 3

2013-06-14T06:12:34Z

Fshen:

Simulation group led by Dusan Odstrcil (USA) and Fang Shen (China); At-large leaders: Noe Lugaz (USA) and Chin-Chun Wu (USA)

== Scientific Objective ==

The main ISEST objective is to ''"improve the scientific understanding of the origin and propagation of solar transients, and develop the prediction capacity of these transients' arrival and potential impact on the Earth"''.

The WG3 (Simulation Group) will:
* Provide global context for all CME events investigated by the ISEST team
* Investigate processes of the CME initiation, heliospheric propagation, and CMEs interaction
* Develop tools to assist collaboration of numerical modelers, theoreticians, and observers

 

==Scientific Questions==

* Initiation

* Propagation and interaction

* Impact

 

== Simulation of the ISEST Event Periods (with WG1 Data) ==

* Late July to early August 2010

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2010-07-29.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0120.gif|204px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20100729/]
|}

* February 2011

* Early March 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-03-01.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0144.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120301/]
|}

* July 2012

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:2012-07-17.tim1-coho3-vel-1.7.0168.gif|255px]]
| WSA-ENLIL-Cone run by HelioWeather. More data at [http://solar.gmu.edu/wiki/upload/Dodstrci/20120717/]
|}

{| class="wikitable"
| [[File:20120713-15.gif|255px]]
| run by 3D COIN-TVD model.
|}

 

== Investigation of Mechanisms, Processes, and Forces (with WG2 Theory) ==

* Which mechanisms, processes, forces are governing the CME take-off and ICME propagation?
* How does energy transform during ICMEs propagation and interaction?
* How much variable ambient conditions affect ICMEs?
* How SEPs are accelerated by shocks and how they transport in heliosphere?

 

== Forecasting the CME Arrival and Impact (with WG4 Campaign Events) ==

* Arrival time

* Geo-effectiveness

* Energetic particles

 

== Presentations at the Hvar Workshop 2013 ==

* WG3 - 1st Choice:
** Dusan Odstrcil - Helio Weather Project and Numerical Simulation of Multi-CME Events (WG3)
** Fang Shen - Could the collision of CMEs in the heliosphere be super-elastic? (WG3)

* WG3 - 2nd Choice:
** Bojan Vrsnak - Drag Based Model for ICME Propagation
** Yuming Wang - Do we need to correct projection effect for halo CMEs in terms of space weather forecasting?
** Roberto Susino - Study of a geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejection with UV spectroscopy and stereoscopic data

 

== Future Plan ==
TBD

File:20120713-15.gif

2013-06-14T06:09:48Z

Fshen:

Working Group 3

2013-06-08T00:11:54Z

Fshen: